This article is about Google Analytics 4 properties. If you're using a Universal Analytics property, refer to the Universal Analytics section of this help center.

[GA4] Predictive metrics

About predictive metrics

Google Analytics automatically enriches your data by bringing Google machine-learning expertise to bear on your dataset to predict the future behavior of your users. With predictive metrics, you learn more about your customers just by collecting structured event data.

Metric Definition
Purchase probability

The probability that a user who was active in the last 28 days will log a specific conversion event within the next 7 days.

Churn probability

The probability that a user who was active on your app or site within the last 7 days will not be active within the next 7 days.

Revenue prediction

The revenue expected from all purchase conversions within the next 28 days from a user who was active in the last 28 days.

Currently, only purchase/ecommerce_purchase and in_app_purchase events are supported for the Purchase probability and Revenue prediction metrics.

 

Prerequisites

In order to successfully train predictive models, Analytics requires the following:

  • A minimum number of positive and negative examples of purchasers or churned users. In order to be eligible it is required that over a seven-day period at least 1,000 returning users triggered the relevant predictive condition during the previous 28 days and that at least 1,000 users did not.
  • Model quality must be sustained over a period of time to be eligible.
  • To be eligible for both purchase probability and churn probability, a property has to send the purchase (recommended for collection) and/or in_app_purchase (collected automatically) events.

    When you collect the purchase event, you need to also collect the value and currency parameters for that event. Learn more

Predictive metrics for each eligible model will be generated for each active user once per day. If the model quality for your property falls below the minimum threshold, then Analytics will stop updating the corresponding predictions and they may become unavailable in Analytics.

You can check the eligibility status of each prediction by going to the predictive section within suggested-audience templates in the audience builder.

Using predictive metrics

Predictive metrics are available in the audience builder and in Explorations.

Audience builder

Predictive metrics can be used to create predictive audiences in the audience builder.

Exploration

You can use Purchase probability and Churn probability in Explorations within the User lifetime technique.

Best practices

In your data-sharing settings, enable the benchmarking setting. You benefit when this setting is ON because Analytics is able to use shared aggregated and anonymous data to improve model quality and improve your predictions.

Make sure to maximize the use of event recommendations in your property.

Make sure you are collecting the purchase, and/or in_app_purchase events. in_app_purchase events are collected automatically. However, you must link to Google Play via your Firebase account in order to see the in_app_purchase event if you have an Android app. Also, please note that although we will continue to process the ecommerce_purchase event, we now recommend the purchase event instead.

Collecting a larger variety or volume of recommended events corresponding to user behavior will help enhance our models and improve predictions. Likewise minimizing noisy events that are not meaningful in terms of user behavior will also help improve predictions.

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