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Forecasting of underdelivery

DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP) predicts when your line items will underdeliver and alerts you in several places, giving you the opportunity to stop underdelivery before it happens. Underdelivery is a lost opportunity for your line item to meet its goals. Insufficient inventory, or not enough available impressions, is the primary reason for underdelivery of a line item. With forecasting of underdelivery, you’ll know in advance which line items may not have enough inventory, and have the time to take action and give your line items a better chance to deliver.

Line items that can receive underdelivery warnings

To be eligible to receive an underdelivery warning, a line item must:

  • Have not started delivering yet.

  • Start in the next 30 days.

  • End within the next year from today.

  • Have an absolute goal (e.g., number of impressions for a standard line item) instead of a percentage-based goal.

Where to see underdelivery warnings

DFP offers underdelivery warnings in a variety of ways:

Warning Description
Expected to underdeliver status

In DFP, click Delivery to see the Orders summary page.

  • In the Line items column, Expected to underdeliver is a new line item status indicating the number of line items in the order that are predicted to underdeliver because of insufficient inventory.
  • If you then click an order on the page to see its summary of line items, the line items that are predicted to underdeliver will have a value of Expected to underdeliver in the Status column. You’ll also see Expected to underdeliver in the header of the page, along with the number of line items that are predicted to underdeliver.
  • If you then click a line item on the page, you’ll also see Expected to underdeliver in the header of the line item details page that appears.
Filter for orders or line items that are Expected to underdeliver

These are the options for filtering:

  • Click Delivery and then Orders  and then Expected to underdeliver
  • Click Delivery and then Line items  and then Expected to underdeliver
  • If you’re already on a page that lists orders or line items, you can click Filters and then Add filters above the table, select Expected to underdeliver and then Is and then True from the drop-downs, and click Apply filters.

Filtering gives you a tightly focused overview of the orders or line items that may need attention because of insufficient inventory, and simplifies the process for making updates as needed.

Expected to deliver column

This new column appears on pages that list line items, such as the page that appears after clicking Line items in the side panel or after clicking on an order to see its line items. It displays the number of impressions that are expected to deliver for a line item.

  • If the Expected to deliver value is less than the value in the Goal column, you’ll see a warning icon.
  • You can use Expected to deliver along with underdelivery details in the Progress column to get a more complete view of the line item’s likelihood to achieve its goal under the current settings.
  • This column only applies to line items that have an impression goal and are set to start delivering in the next 30 days. For all other line items (including line items that have already started delivering), you’ll see “N/A”.

What should I do when I see an underdelivery warning?

When you see the underdelivery warning for a line item, we recommend you run a forecast before taking action.

  • If the forecast also predicts underdelivery, try to determine what will improve your chances of delivery. Experiment with changes to settings or targeting in your forecast. On a line item, you can run a forecast to see the effect before applying the changes. For example, see if more inventory will be available if you target a different set of ad units, or if you choose a different date range. Then apply the changes to your line item. Here are some other tips for resolving underdelivery.

  • If the forecast actually predicts that the line item will deliver, the forecast is likely the more reliable measure. If these discrepancies occur often, please report the issue to your DFP support representative.

How often are underdelivery warnings updated?

Underdelivery warnings are updated once a day.

Why is the “Expected to deliver” number different from “Likely to deliver” or “Available”?

“Expected to deliver” is calculated differently from “Likely to deliver” and “Available”:

  • “Likely to deliver” and “Available” are numbers that can appear when checking available inventory, either through the Check inventory button or Delivery forecast tab. These numbers show the number of impressions your line item is predicted to win without impressions that would be taken away from contending line items. Therefore, these are usually the more conservative numbers, as they don’t take into account impressions that the line item could win when competing against contending line items.
  • The “Expected to deliver” column appears on pages that list line items and is part of forecasting for underdelivery. This column portrays the actual number of impressions that this line item is predicted to win, including impressions that would be taken away from contending line items. This is usually the more aggressive number, as it does take into account impressions that the line item could win when competing against contending line items.

We believe it’s useful for publishers to see both of these numbers. If they want to know how many impressions they can book without adversely affecting other line items, they can use the “Available” or “Likely to deliver” number. If they want to know how many impressions the line item is actually going to win, even if it means taking away impressions from other line items, they can look at “Expected to deliver”.

We’re constantly evaluating our forecasting numbers and what they mean to you, to ensure that we’re giving you the most helpful numbers possible. Look for continued improvements to our forecasting numbers in future releases.

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