Analyze prediction results

Depending on the number of locations in the tile, the prediction results file will be sent to your email 5 to 15 minutes after submitting the prediction request.

The number of Pin and Takeover impressions is calculated based on the campaign's length, Takeover radius, and targeting you've selected. The predictions system doesn't look at factors like competition and season trends.

Step 1: Reading the results

The prediction results file shows you the predicted number of impressions per location and ad unit (Pins and Takeover), and two different inventory estimates – Recommended Sale and Top Range. See below for example: 

A B C D E H I
id latitude longitude Pins Recommended Sale Pins Top Range Takeover Recommended Sale Takeover Top Range
Location ID Location's latitude Location's longitude Conservative estimate of number of Pin impressions per location Maximum possible number of Pin impressions per location Conservative estimate of number of Takeover impressions per location Maximum possible number of Takeover impressions per location
 

Prediction per location results

Prediction per location will show you the number of impressions for each ad unit, assuming each individual locations is advertised in a separate account.

  A B C D E F G H I
1 id latitude longitude Pins Recommended Sale Pins Top Range     Takeover Recommended Sale Takeover Top Range
2 1 46.6817 0.3734 71847 79830     32780 36423
3 2 48.44354 -0.48064 1129 1254     2265 2517
4 3 47.86619 0.467655 1128 1254     118 131
5 4 43.24944993 -0.279435489 3154 3505     22695 25217
6 5 47.27659947 -0.074605694 9592 10658     14340 15933
7 6 47.87648 0.21637 3117 3463     16398 18220 

Prediction not per location results

Prediction not per location (i.e overall prediction) will show you the overall number of impressions your locations can reach altogether, assuming all locations are advertised in one account.

The results that you get per location are not going to add up to the overall number of possible impressions. The system is more conservative when it predicts inventory per location.

However, the aggregated number of impressions for all locations will be less conservative, as the system recognizes that it has more freedom to deliver impressions over a larger space. 

  A B C D E F G H I
1 id latitude longitude Pins Recommended Sale Pins Top Range     Takeover Recommended Sale Takeover Top Range
2 Overall prediction for locations group     80970 89967     70150 77945
3 1 46.6817 0.3734 64662 71847        
4 2 48.44354 -0.48064 1016 1129        
5 3 47.86619 0.467655 1015 1128        
6 4 43.24944993 -0.279435489 2839 3154        
7 5 47.27659947 -0.074605694 8633 9592        
8 6 47.87648 0.21637 2805 3117        

Recommended Sale vs. Top Range

Recommended Sale is the maximum number of impressions you should propose to a client. Top Range is the maximum number of impressions you can propose.

The more restrictions applied on your campaigns (i.e targeting and limited duration), the less likely you are to reach Top Range numbers.  

Step 2: Calculating budgets

Budget spent in Waze Ads is calculated using this formula:

 Budget spent = (Impressions × CPM bid) ÷ 1,000

To easily calculate the budgets of each column in the file, use this Excel/Google Sheets formula: =cell*CPM/1000

  1. Add 2 new columns next to each ad unit's results (columns D, E, H, I in the example below).
  2. Place 2 and 25 in the formula in the place of Pins and Takeover's CPM bid:
    • Pins: =cell*2/1000
    • Takeover:  =cell*25/1000
  A B C D E F G H I J K
1 id latitude longitude Pins Recommended Sale Pins Top Range Pins Recommended Budget

Pins Top Budget

Takeover Recommended Sale Takeover Top Range Takeover Recommended Budget Takeover Top Budget
2 Overall prediction for locations group     80970 89967 =D2*2/1000 =E2*2/1000 70150 77945 =H2*25/1000 =I2*25/1000
161.94 179.934 1753.75 1948.625
3 1 46.6817 0.3734 64662 71847 129.324 143.694        
4 2 48.44354 -0.48064 1016 1129 2.032 2.258        
5 3 47.86619 0.467655 1015 1128 2.03 2.256        
6 4 43.24944993 -0.279435489 2839 3154 2.678 6.308        
7 5 47.27659947 -0.074605694 8633 9592 17.266 19.184        
8 6 47.87648 0.21637 2805 3117 5.61 6.234        

Results

Given $2 Pins and $25 Takeover CPM Bids, the recommended budgets for serving the predicted impressions to all locations are:

  • $161 for Branded Pins ($179 at max).
  • $1,753 for Zero-Speed Takeovers ($1,948 at max).
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