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Conversion Probability

In this article:

See Conversion Probability data

To open the Conversion Probability report:

  1. Sign in to Google Analytics.
  2. Navigate to your view.
  3. Open Reports.
  4. Select Audience > Behavior > Conversion Probability.

Conversion Probability data is delayed by 24 hours: this report depends on complete processing of the daily-aggregate tables.

If a reporting view does not meet the prerequisites for data, then the report is not visible in Analytics.

Conversion Probability is currently based only on transaction data.

About conversion probability

Using the same data modeling techniques that determine Smart Lists and Smart Goals, Analytics calculates the Conversion Probability dimension and the Average Conversion Probability metric to determine a user’s likelihood to convert during the next 30 days. Transactions for each user are evaluated, and the resulting probability of conversion is expressed as an average score of 1-100 for all users during the date range, with 1 being the least probable and 100 being the most probable. A value of 0 indicates that the metric is not calculated for the selected time range.

Conversion Probability is calculated for individual users..

Average Conversion Probability is calculated for all users related to a dimension for the date range you’re using, for example:

  • The score for all users where Channel = Organic Search January 1 - January 31
  • The score for all users where Source = Google during January 1 - January 31

The Conversion Probability dimension is available in the Conversion Probability report, and in Analytics segments, remarketing audiences, and custom reports.

The Avg. Conversion Probability metric is available in custom reports.

Prerequisites

In order to calculate the dimension and metric, Analytics needs the following:

  • A minimum of 1000 Ecommerce transactions per month in the reporting view. (You must have implemented Ecommerce Tracking).
  • Once you reach the initial threshold of 1000 ecommerce transactions, Analytics then needs 30 days of data to model.

The Conversion Probability report

Default data in the Conversion Probability report

The Conversion Probability report lets you see:

  • The distribution of users, and users with and without transactions, across 5 conversion-probability buckets (histogram)
  • Acquisition, behavior, and conversion metrics for users across the dimensions of Default Channel Grouping, Source, and Medium (table)

Using conversion-probability data

Segments

With segments, you can look at any of your data in the context of conversion-probability thresholds. For example, you can create a segment for Conversion Probability > 75, and then examine things like:

  • How your users who demonstrate a strong likelihood to convert compare with your overall user base. Do they represent a small fraction of your users, or do your advertising and site combine to engage a large percentage of your users?
  • Which channels, keywords, and campaigns deliver highly engaged users.
  • Which conversion paths are most effective, and where along the path can you deliver the most effective advertising.

Conversely, you can use a low threshold to examine the opposite end of the user spectrum:

  • What percentage of your users are less likely to convert?
  • Are the keywords and campaigns that draw users who are unlikely to convert different from the ones that draw more valuable users? If they are, does it make sense to devote less budget to them?
  • Which conversion paths do the lower-scoring users follow? Are there opportunities along those paths to deliver more effective marketing?

Remarketing audiences

Users who are on the threshold of converting are more easily convinced to complete those conversions. For example, users who have studied product details or added items to their carts have given strong signals that they’re already taking ownership of those products. A persuasive follow-up from you via a well-crafted remarketing campaign can provide that last nudge they need to complete the process.

Creating remarketing audiences based on your users who are more likely to convert and publishing those audiences to your various marketing platforms like AdWords and DoubleClick Bid Manager lets you re-engage them everywhere you have an online presence.

You can also publish these audiences to Optimize so that you can understand exactly which refinements to your site content deliver the highest likelihood of conversion.

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