Understand how Google applies forecast adjustments to the forecasting numbers, what happens when you adjust a forecast with a placement filter, why you can’t enter adjustments outside of a certain range, and more.
A new adjustment is always applied to the latest forecasting numbers, which include any existing adjustments.
- If there’s no existing adjustment over the date range: The adjustment is made relative to the current forecast at the time of the adjustment, and it won't change after that.
- If there is an existing adjustment over the date range: The new adjustment is made relative to the existing adjustments.
Including existing adjustments in the baseline allows you to combine multiple adjustment effects with overlapping date ranges.Example
The initial daily forecast for May 2 – 5 is:
- May 2: 100
- May 3: 100
- May 4: 100
- May 5: 100
The total is 400 predicted ad opportunities.
You then apply a 150% adjustment to May 4 – 5. The forecasted numbers are:
- May 2: 100
- May 3: 100
- May 4: adjusted to 150
- May 5: adjusted to 150
The total is now 500.
You then select May 2 – 5 and update the total adjustment to 1000. We don’t evenly allocate the 1000 to 250 for each of the 4 days. Instead, we proportionally allocate them according to the value of each day, inclusive of the 1st adjustment.
The adjusted forecast numbers are now:
- May 2: adjusted to 200
- May 3: adjusted to 200
- May 4: adjusted to 300
- May 5: adjusted to 300
Filtering by placements
When filtering by placements, note that changing their ad units will affect the adjusted value for the remaining ad units. For example, if you adjust traffic for a placement by 1 million impressions, and later remove 8 of the 10 ad units from the placement, only 2 ad units will be left to share the adjustment of 1 million impressions.
Ad Manager supports adjustments within 20% to 300% of the average daily value of the full two-year forecast. The supported adjustment may be narrower for some date ranges if they have points that are already close to the 20% to 300% boundary.Example
Adjust up to 4000%
It’s possible to enter an adjustment that’s 300% to 4000% of the average daily value of the full two-year forecast. However, you’ll receive a warning message:
- The 300% to 4000% range is not fully supported because there may be unexpected and unintended consequences to other traffic segments.
- Therefore, we recommend using values larger than 300% with caution, confirming there aren’t unexpected and unintended consequences to other traffic segments.
Coming soon: See how adjustments affect your forecast
When you make a forecast adjustment using the new functionality, we’ll soon provide alerts and details when the adjustment affects traffic or inventory forecasting numbers. These alerts and details were available for legacy forecast adjustments.
In the meantime, to see which inventory is affected by your adjustments, click Inventory Traffic forecast and review the "All adjustments" section.